"A new forecasting method for the Brexit referendum"
The following blog has been published first at the Oxford University Politics Blog. Here is just the first part explaining the logic behind our BAFS method. Is it possible to have a more accurate...
View ArticleBrexit: Ranking UK pollsters
Opinion pollsters in the UK came under a fierce line of attack from the public and the media following their joint failure to accurately predict the results of the 2015 UK general election. Months and...
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The Bayesian Adjusted Facebook Survey has started!
Today we have started with our Brexit survey. I invite all of my UK readers to give it a go. You will be helping us test our new BAFS prediction method. In other words you will be helping us make a...
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Brexit: the final prediction!
Our final prediction is a close victory for Remain. According to our BAFS method Remain is expected to receive a vote share of 50.5%, giving it a 52.3% chance of winning.Click to enlarge. Source:...
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Brexit: The analysis of results and predictions
On yesterday’s historic referendum, Britain has voted Leave. It was decided by a small margin, 51.9% to 48.1% in favour of Leave, with turnout at a high 72.2% (highest since the 1990s). The outcome...
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BREXIT, THE REACTION: democratic deficit, the falling elites, and the future...
After hearing the results of the Brexit referendum on early Friday morning, my initial reaction was this comment on Facebook:After cooling down over the next few days and reading about Brexit from a...
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Why is the US white middle class going rouge? ... and voting for Trump
A recent paper published in PNAS by Princeton professors Anne Case and Angus Deaton (last year's Nobel prize winner) reported a stunning finding: there has been a significant increase in mortality and...
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Having more money helps the poor? Go figure!
The link between income and happiness has been one of the most hotly contested relationships among social scientists. Many researchers from various branches of social sciences have repeatedly denied...
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The new political distinction is not left-right, but open-closed
It's holiday season, and the Olympic games have just started, I know, but I read this great piece in last week's the Economist and I just had to share it with my readers. It is possibly one of their...
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Physics meets Economics: "Why Information Grows?" (or What I've been reading,...
I haven't posted any book reviews for a while now. It's not that I haven't been reading the books, it's just that I failed to find the time to write the reviews. So now, in the next three, four blog...
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What I've been reading (vol 8.): Economic history
As announced in the previous blog post the next two book reviews will cover four very interesting history books (well, history to some extent). The first one is actually all about geography and...
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What I've been reading (vol 9.) Economic history: Malthus and beyond
After the very intriguing part 1 covering two fascinating books whose contribution extends across a few scientific fields, this one lays out two books with a more contemporary historical emphasis....
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Predicting the Croatian general election (again!)
This week my colleagues and I from Oraclum were focused on predicting the outcome of the forthcoming Croatian general election. We did the same thing last year and were not expecting to do Croatian...
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What I've been reading (vol 10.): Cronyism and inequality
Zingales, Luigi (2012) A Capitalism for the People. Recapturing the Lost Genius of American Prosperity. Basic Books, New York. Luigi Zingales, a University of Chicago Booth School of Business professor...
View ArticleThe John Lewis economy - a belated comment
In my last book review I summarized a very interesting book called The Spirit Level by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett. In it the authors propose a solution that would not only lower inequality and...
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2016 Nobel prize awarded to Hart and Holmstrom for contract theory
It's that time of the year again - Nobel prize awards! After being awarded to a single recipient two years in a row (Deaton in 2015, Tirole in 2014), this year the Nobel in economics is shared by two...
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What I've been reading (vol. 11): Atkinson & Stiglitz
Atkinson, Anthony (2015) Inequality. What Can Be Done? Harvard University Press&Atkinson, Anthony (2008) The Changing Distribution of Earnings in OECD Countries. Oxford University PressThe first...
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The trade-off between equality and efficiency reexamined
After having read and reviewed Stiglitz's book earlier this week, and after having written the following paragraph..."I too have long considered the relationship between equality and efficiency to be...
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Predicting the 2016 US Presidential election
Is it possible to have a more accurate prediction by asking people how confident they are that their preferred choice will win?One consequence of this hectic election season has been that people have...
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New Scientist: "As US election looms, time is ripe for a new science of polling"
My article got published today at the New Scientist! One of the biggest science magazines in the world.See the text here (there is no paywall, you just register and read it for free). It was even on...
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